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For years, investors, business strategists, and policymakers worldwide have turned to one book to help them translate the massive flow of economic data into knowledge for intelligent decision-making. The Wall Street Journal called this book "…the real deal," saying it "miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics." That book is Bernie Baumohl’s classic best-seller The Secrets of Economic Indicators. Now, in a brand-new Third Edition, Baumohl has thoroughly updated his classic to reflect the latest US and foreign economic indicators, and brand-new insights into what all of today’s leading indicators mean. Baumohl introduces dozens of new, forward-looking economic markers, including those that monitor small business plans, freight traffic shifts, web searches, and even gambling. He also presents several real-time foreign indicators for anticipating swings in European and Asian economies. He explains what’s happened to the global and domestic U.S. economy in recent years, showing how financial crises impact investments, strategy, and economic indicators. New graphics more clearly illuminate how key indicators impact interest rates, bond and stock prices, and currency values; and hundreds of websites containing US and global economic indicators have been updated. This classic book has long been considered an invaluable resource by professionals who need to understand the true meaning of the latest economic trends. With this new edition, Bernie Baumohl has made it even more useful.
- Sales Rank: #103394 in Books
- Brand: Baumohl, Bernard
- Published on: 2012-08-03
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x .70" w x 7.00" l, 2.05 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 496 pages
From the Back Cover
“Bernard Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and yes, entertainingly, describes what every investor and business partner should know about economic indicators. This is an extraordinary and insightful work.”
--Robert Hormats, Former Vice-Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International)
“This is the real deal. Baumohl miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics.”
-- The Wall Street Journal
“This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet.”
--David Wyss, former Chief Economist, Standard and Poor’s
“Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl’s book close at hand. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity.”
--Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Hugh Johnson Advisors
“Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets.”
--Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc.
The #1 Plain-English Guide to Interpreting and Using Economic Data--Now Fully Updated!
- New analyses based on up-to-the-minute data
- New easy-to-understand graphics
- New real-time indicators for anticipating global economic swings
- New forward-looking domestic economic markers
More than 80,000 investors, strategists, and policymakers have used this unique book to make smarter decisions and more profitable investments! Now, renowned economic analyst Bernard Baumohl has completely updated his best-seller to reflect the newest global and U.S. indicators and data. Baumohl identifies powerful new indicators of emerging economic shifts, eliminates indicators that have lost predictive value, and explains key points using powerfully intuitive new visuals. The Secrets of Economic Indicators, Third Edition, is simpler, clearer, more relevant, and even more indispensable!
If you want to translate economic data into better decision-making and higher profits, The Wall Street Journal says one book is “the real deal”: Bernard Baumohl’s The Secrets of Economic Indicators. Now, Baumohl has thoroughly updated his classic best-seller to reflect today’s most valuable U.S. and foreign economic indicators and offer new insights into what they mean.
This brand-new third edition introduces many new, forward-looking economic markers, including those that monitor small business plans, freight traffic shifts, Web searches, and even gambling. Baumohl identifies new real-time foreign indicators that help anticipate swings in European and Asian economies and reveals how the financial crises have changed the behavior of even the most familiar indices. Baumohl also lists some free cell phone apps that will keep you on top of the economy and financial markets wherever you are.
New graphics make it easier to understand how key indicators impact interest rates, bond and stock prices, and currency values, and Baumohl has systematically updated his comprehensive listings of U.S. and global Web-based data sources.
Which economic indicators matter most today?
Choose the indices that offer the best predictive value and most crucial insights
How has the new global economic environment reshaped the use of indicators?
Understand the implications of deeper economic integration and increased sovereign risk
How do you transform data into better investment decisions?
Discover how key indicators impact interest rates, bond prices, stock prices, and currency values
About the Author
Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist at The Economic Outlook Group, oversees its forecasts of economic trends and geopolitical risks. He also conducts seminars on how corporate leaders and investors can use forward-looking economic indicators to stay ahead of the business cycle. He has lectured on economics at New York University, Duke University, and the New York Institute of Finance.
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Baumohl was also an award-winning TIME magazine economics reporter who covered Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and the White House. As an economist for European American Bank, he conducted research on the global economy. He also served as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations. Baumohl has a Master’s degree in international affairs and economics from Columbia University.
Most helpful customer reviews
113 of 115 people found the following review helpful.
Promises to Become Dog-eared Quickly
By Craig L. Howe
On any given weekday, stocks and bonds gyrate in response to some economic announcement.
Bernard Baumohl, a Time magazine economics writer with more than 20 years of experience, has written a guide to these indicators and their importance to the financial markets.
The book promises to become dog-eared quickly. In concise language it explains what Baumohl indicates are the most influential U. S. and International Economic Indicators. Beginning in Chapter 2, the author defines the phrases and concepts essential to an understanding of the indicators.
In Chapter 3 he jumps into the heart of the matter: U. S. economic indicators. Each indicator is evaluated using the following criteria:
* Why is it important?
* How is it computed?
* What does it day about the future?
* How might stocks, bonds and/or currencies react to its announcement?
In Chapter 4, he examines the 10 most influential foreign indicators using the same criteria.
In the final two chapters, Baumohl provides a list of web sites that compile economic data. What in the past costs thousands of dollars is available on the web at no cost.
If any facet of your life is effected by these indicators, you owe it to yourself to keep a copy of this book nearby.
71 of 72 people found the following review helpful.
No secrets, but painless and useful information for independent thinkers
By Aaron C. Brown
This book does a competent job of summarizing key facts about 58 US and 13 foreign economic indicators. It's one level of detail more than you would get reading a business news story about the number, and at least one level of detail shy of a professional reference. I'm skeptical that it will help anyone understand the economy better or make better investment decisions, but it might help a non-professional make more sense of the economic news. The prose is clear and stylish, which is a real accomplishment considering the format and subject matter. There are no secrets in the book, despite the title, nor any serious discussion of how to use the numbers to understand or predict the economy, or to make money or set policy.
If you're reading this review, I assume you want a book on economic indicators written at this level and are trying to choose among The WSJ Guide to the 50 Economic Indicators That Really Matter, Economic Indicators For Dummies, The Complete Idiot's Guide to Economic Indicators, The Atlas of Economic Indicators, The U.S. Economy Demystified: What the Major Economic Statistics Mean and Their Significance for Business, Market Indicators, The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators,International Economic Indicators and Central Banks, Handbook of Key Economic Indicators and Using Economic Indicators to Improve Investment Analysis.
The first three are the most fun to read, and the best ways to spice up your cocktail-party conversation about economic news. They are broader than The Secrets of Economic Indicators, with better coverage of less traditional and non-governmental statistics, and also indicators of economic health like poverty rates and health care access not directly related to production or consumption. They are organized better for understanding the relation among the statistics, but less well if you just want to look up a recently-released number.
Atlas and Demystified are less fun to read, but have far more economic content. They present simplified models of the economy, and show where major indicators give insight. You have to read them in order, they are not useful as occasional reference works. However, neither one requires previous education in economics nor experience in business.
The next two, Market Indicators and Trader's Guide, are aimed squarely at short-term investment decisions around the release of indicators. They're fun to read if you like watching CNBC, but not really concerned with economics. I would personally be surprised if either one made you rich, but you pays your money and you takes your chances.
The last three are considerably more academic, and as you might expect, denser than the rest. They focus more on longer-term economic prediction and fundamental analysis than either short-term trading or general-interest news. These will be most useful to people with moderate background in economics or investing.
The Secrets of Economic Indicators' great strength is its agnosticism about economics or policy (despite some flamboyant speculations about recent events, which are boxed off from the main text). It's giving the facts, not promoting theories. It requires little prior knowledge and is comprehensive within its relatively narrow focus of indicators that get widespread attention in the business press concerned with the business cycle, production and spending. It's more serious than the first three books, and easier to read than any of the others. It is also has the most general purpose, you have to think for yourself what to do with the information. It might be the best choice for someone skeptical of economic theories, but with a mild interest in following general economic news.
88 of 92 people found the following review helpful.
Are they real, or are the government numbers?
By Thomas Mongle
Bernard Baumohl's "The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities" starts off with a riff on how investors got sold out by their "expert" advisors and even the stock-issuing companies themselves during the recent crash. He contends investors are in the need for better guidance. The solution, he says, is an individual investor do-it-yourself approach to fundamental macroeconomic analysis based on the reported data that underlies both the domestic and international economy.
Make no mistake, this is one of the most useful and fundamentally sound readings of how economies really work you will ever see - much more revealing and educational than a raft of academic books purporting to teach us how the theoretical economy is supposed to function. This book magnifies the real workings of an economy (daily, weekly, monthly) - the inputs that produce the outputs - and how the data generated from those workings is reported, analyzed, and used.
Baumohl lists 4 weekly, 43 monthly, and 9 quarterly releases of data in short outline form along with what they are, when they're reported, and how they're computed, along with their expected effect on the stock market, interest rates, and the dollar.
His goal, he states, is to answer the question of which indicators pack the greatest wallop in the financial markets and which ones are known for doing the best job predicting where the economy is going, thus influencing investments. He assigns a relevance rating to each of the indicators.
It's easy to get overwhelmed quickly and Baumohl is right when he laments that "There is too much economic information out there, and not all of it is useful."
He should have added "not all that accurate" either.
As you leaf your way through the compilations, you come to realize that the "numbers" that move the markets are frequently incomplete. The queried respondents upon whose businesses and operations are being used to create data are notoriously negligent in meeting reporting deadlines which brings up the question of whether we ever get a full reading of what's being reported. Thus the need for "restating" next time around. But by "the next time," those numbers are irreverent and relegated to history. Question: So, was that big market move last month based on bad info, and if so, will it correct itself when the old data is corrected? Not likely, because a new set of questionable data just got reported and is now at center stage. Deja vu all over again.
For all the questions it raises, this is a good attempt at trying to get a grip on the maze of financial accounting we're still trying to clean up, but it points out more holes than it fills.
One thing Baumohl doesn't address which would be a good subject for a follow-on book is that indicators don't have the same influence consistently through time. Each seems to have a life all its own. From the body counts (Vietnam) of the late 1960s, to the oil price increases of the mid-1970s, to the prime rate increases of the late 1970s, right on through the monthly deficit numbers of today, one influential indicator periodically rises to become the focal point of the press and the Wall Street pundits. Relative importance comes and goes with the seasons, and it would have been good to see a 40-year chart clearly delineating how dominant indicators of the time influenced direction of the various markets.
Another issue not confronted is the role played by hedonic influences on various indicators. How should we adjust for increased computer RAM or safety features of automobiles or effectiveness of medical treatment?
A third question concerns whether the market's reaction operates in a vacuum. Is the day the report comes out merely one more in a series of "jolts" or does it become the tipping point that truly reverses a trend which was waiting for an ignition spark?
A final observation sums up the underlying but unspoken concern about the whole system of governmental collected and reported figures. The world's most important investor (Alan Greenspan) obviously relies on these figures to make financial and monetary decisions. It is disconcerting to read how many of these indicators are less than what one would expect them to be. Whether Greenspan can make the correct decisions based on sometimes questionable statistics is a question that perhaps will never be answered.
In the mean time, we can all learn a lot about the "numbers" that have an increasingly important impact on our daily lives, to say nothing of our investments.
Read it and consider your options.
For a different angle on how the markets work see Ron Insana's excellent "The Message of the Markets" (2000) and "Trendwatching" (2002) which deal with the reality of prices rather than suppositions.
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